IDENTIFYING DISASTERS
Natural Disasters

Over the last two decades, number and scale of natural disasters has increased dramatically. In 1998, natural disasters claimed more than 50,000 lives and resulted in economic losses of more than $65 billion. These losses are difficult to absorb even for a developed economy, let alone their overwhelmingly adverse impact on the developing countries, disproportionately affected as they are by the disasters. Many disasters have struck India; recent ones that underscore our vulnerabilities as also uncoordinated response are earthquake in Gujarat and Latur, cyclone in Orissa, landslide in Pithoragarh, forest fire in Uttaranchal and endemic crises arising from floods and drought.

Natural disasters can be classified as under:

(a) Geological Origin

(i) Earthquakes
(ii) Volcanic eruptions
(iii) Tsunamis
(iv) Ground deformation and landslides
(v) Avalanches

(b) Atmosphere-Ocean-Hydrology

(i) Cyclones and storm surges
(ii) Intense vortices, tornadoes and Nor' westers
(iii) Wind shears
(iv) River and coastal floods
(v) Droughts and famine
(vi) Climatic changes, global warming and rise in relative sea level.

Man-made Disasters

As civilization, over the years has marched forward, ironically the man-made disasters, advertent as a facial cast of conflicts or inadvertent due to accidents and indiscriminate human activity, too have abounded in variety, numbers, and intensity. These pose a greater challenge than the natural ones. The following are some significant examples:

(a) NBC attacks and accidents.
(b) Chemical spills.
(c) Forest and building fires.
(d) Deforestation.
(e) Viral attacks and epidemics.
(f) Marine and atmospheric pollution by toxic agents.
(g) Willful bio destruction.
(h) Genetic manipulation.
In the case of terrorist acts, intelligence and civil defence have a vital role to play. In the prevailing circumstances, bio, cyber and genetic attacks have become fairly common. An American expert on bio warfare Dr D A Henderson was recently in India. He unequivocally warned that the spectre of bio warfare should be taken seriously because compared to other weapons of mass destruction (WMD), bio weapons were cheaper to make, require simpler infrastructure, and the technology is within easy reach of the terrorist groups. They can be packed in an aerosol and sprayed around.

Cyber terrorism too is a stark reality that has assumed menacing dimensions in recent months. Much clandestine work is afoot amongst our known adversaries, e.g. Pak 'G' force, Islamic Hacker Group and the ISI. Widespread drug abuse and genetic manipulation are other social disorder and epidemic inducing evils of concern.

Collateral Afflictions and Civic Collapses

Natural disasters come in tandem and bring in attendant hardships. An earthquake of magnitude eight or more may last a few minutes but cause wide-scale ruination due to displacement of ground near epicentre and heterogeneity at different scales because of nature of rocks, relief, inherited structures, faults etc. and trapping of seismic waves inducing landslides and rock falls. This may lead to collapse or sinking of buildings, blocking of access roads, damage to water supply, electricity and telephone lines, fire break-out caused by explosions due to gas, petrol and chemical leaks, and epidemics as a result of bad sanitary conditions. There are problems of break down of law and order leading to pillaging and violence.